The President’s son-in-law seems close to issuing his long awaited plan to settle all the issues outstanding between Israel and the Palestinians. Yet the best bet is that the plan will fail. Kushner does not appear to recognize the lasting consequences of all the history and all the earlier peace negotiations and all the refusals by the Palestinians and the Israelis to make peace. Those consequences make it nearly impossible for either the Israelis and the Palestinians to accept any new thinking.
—Marvin Zonis

Robert Bianchi has lived and worked in China and the Islamic World for the past two decades. He has a PhD in Political Science and a Law degree, both from the University of Chicago. His new book focuses on how the new “Silk Road” is transforming global politics. Bianchi has a discerning vision which neither excuses nor vilifies his subject. He is especially insightful on how the One Belt One Road initiative will have blowback into China. Here is an excerpt from the book.
——Marvin Zonis

City Elementary, a diverse learning school located in Hyde Park, is celebrating its fifth anniversary. Please join us for this celebration and help us continue the good work of the school. Please go to https://city-elementary-benefit19.eventbrite.com to purchase tickets or make a contribution. If you cannot join us in person, please do make a contribution to City Elementary.

The simple line on the Middle East is that the Shi’a — as embodied in Iran, which is the world’s only official Shi’a state — is pushing an aggressive foreign policy that leaves the region in turmoil. In fact, Iran’s foreign policy is only a minor contribution to the chaos of the Middle East. Instead, it is important to focus squarely on the multiple dysfunctions of the Sunni states — the Arab world plus Turkey and Pakistan. Something is dramatically wrong in those countries and the consequences are poverty and political turmoil.
——Marvin Zonis

An avid China watcher argues that the travails of American companies in China, particularly Apple and GM, owe less to internal China conditions and more to the companies and their product offerings themselves.
——Marvin Zonis

Germany’s current account surplus — the balance of all its transactions with the rest of the world — is the highest in the world. In 2018 it was $294 billion. Japan’s surplus was $173 billion. China’s was a paltry $49.1 billion in the same year (although non-official estimates put the actual number $1 billion higher). Meanwhile, the U.S. ran up a current account deficit of $478.6 billion. Germany’s staggering surplus reflects a basic truth about the country. Germans like to save. They don’t like to spend. Here is an explanation for why that is true….
——Marvin Zonis

The DSM is basically the ‘Bible’ of mental health professionals in the United States. "The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM–5) is the product of more than 10 years of effort by hundreds of international experts in all aspects of mental health. Their dedication and hard work have yielded an authoritative volume that defines and classifies mental disorders in order to improve diagnoses.” (https://www.psychiatry.org/psychiatrists/practice/dsm) Here, an MD takes the components of the DSM definition of an “Anti-Social Personality Disorder” and applies them to the long personal history of what we know about President Trump. The result produces the shocking realization that our President is emotionally impaired and a text book example of a DSM mental disorder. This diagnosis was made during the 2016 Presidential campaign. Nothing that characterizes the President since that campaign changes this diagnosis. The value of the diagnosis is that it helps us understand more of his behavior and contributes to better forecasts of what he is likely to to do in the future.
——Marvin Zonis

Past Saudi policies in Yemen are the most likely explanation for the slow rise of the Houthis and their anti-Saudi stance. For the last four years, the Saudis have waged war against them to diminish their control over much of the country. The war has accomplished at least three things. First, it has demonstrated the total incompetence of the Saudi military. The Saudi goal of becoming a major Middle Eastern power is now obviously an absurdity. Second, the Saudi bombing campaign has utterly pulverized Yemen while its blockade of the major port of Hodeidah has inflicted a humanitarian disaster by preventing food and medicine imports. Third, by ginning up what is basically a non-existent Iranian threat, the Saudis have managed to keep President Trump committed to the Saudi cause. All in all a disaster of the first order.
——Marvin Zonis

The Trump administration has just concluded a global conference held in Warsaw meant to ratchet up pressure on Iran. More than 60 nations attended although several major countries — particularly the Europeans -- refused to send their top diplomats. Vice President Pence set the conference tone by referring to the Iranian regime as “evil” and accusing them of planning a new Holocaust. While the conference was going on, another conference was being held in the same city, a conference organized by the Iranian opposition group, the Mujahedin-e Khalq or MEK. The MEK, apparently funded by the Saudis, is committed to the overthrow of Iran’s clerical regime. The highlight of their conference was a speech by President Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. While President Trump claims regime change is not his goal in Iran, Giuliani’s speech signals otherwise.
——--Marvin Zonis

There are many ways in which government policies decrease inequality. Unfortunately, for those who believe America’s skyrocketing inequality is not only bad but even dangerous for the country, government tax policies actually increase inequality.
——Marvin Zonis

While the administration slams Iran for its domestic repression, nothing is heard of the abuse that Saudi Arabia imposes on its subjects. Since MBS — Muhammad Bin Salman — became Crown Prince, any sign of dissent in the Kingdom and any sign of criticism that comes from anyone but the Crown Prince has been ruthlessly suppressed. So women who advocated for the right for women to drive — a right granted by MBS - were imprisoned. Religious scholars with opinions contrary to MBS’ coterie of clerics get similar treatment. Here is the story of a cleric who has been outside the Saudi religious establishment and the price he and his family is paying for that independence.

(My sources in the Kingdom conform the essential authenticity of this piece.)

———Marvin Zonis

Something is clearly wrong in the U.S. Whether the statistics deal with life expectancy, social mobility, income inequality or a host of other factors, the statistics show the same thing — the majority of Americans are getting left behind. The two questions that need to be asked are “why has this come about?” and "what is to be done about it?” This article does not try to answer the first question. Instead it suggests that the American elite — made up largely of corporate executives plus some retired politicians, for example, Bill Clinton — are attempting solutions to the second question that may provide some amelioration of the problem but simultaneously preserve their own position at the top of the hierarchy. Instead, the author argues, both the analysis of the problem and the creation of solutions belong squarely in the political arena. Of course, if you believe as I do that the political arena has largely been captured by the same elite, the author’s “solution” is not going to work.
———Marvin Zonis

Brendan Brown, PhD, is one of the world’s leading monetary theorists. He is senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and associate scholar at Mises Institute. He is a columnist for Nikkei Veritas and a frequent guest on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Brown is a monetary economist whose areas of special expertise include Austrian monetary tradition, European monetary integration, Japanese monetary issues, the global flow of capital and international financial history. He has developed techniques of market analysis during a long career in international financing including the role of chief economist at Mitsubishi (UFJJ) International Finance. He has published many books on international financial topics including most recently (2018) “The Case Against 2 per cent inflation” (Palgrave). He received a PhD from University of London and MBA from University of Chicago.

Dr. Brown has begun a new publication, "Monetary Scenarios,” the inaugural issue of which is below. To receive further mailings, contact him directly at brendanbrown@monetaryscenarios.com.

——Marvin Zonis